**How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far?** > We take an initial l

**How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far?**

> We take an initial look at where median forecasts are (mostly) underestimating and (sometimes) overestimating AI progress, adoption, and impact. How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far? We take an initial look at where median forecasts are (mostly) underestimating and (sometimes) overestimating AI progress, adoption, and impact. Forecasting Research Institute Sep 23, 2026 21 3 Share This is the first post...

**来源信息**
- **来源**：Hacker News：AI 热帖
- **分类**：论文
- **发布时间**：2026-09-27 02:45（北京时间）
- **原文**：[打开原文](https://forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-progress-forecasts-accuracy)